TAKING STOCK OF GDP

By Brian Kantor

Making the distinction between planned and unplanned inventory accumulation will be all-important for any forecast of economic growth. In the case of the SA economy in Q2, it seems clear from the Reserve Bank statement that the run down in inventories in Q2 was for largely idiosyncratic reasons, making the application of seasonal adjustments particularly subject to error.

Judged by the estimated growth in final demand, the economy did not deteriorate in Q2 as the statistics on the pure face of it may suggest. In our judgment of the National Income Accounts released for Q2, the economy continues on its unsatisfactorily slow growth path as other indicators of the economic activity, including our own Hard Number Index, have revealed. The economy is growing slowly and not shrinking, nor is it about to do so.

There is, moreover, at least one silver lining to be found in the latest statistics: as much as inventories subtracted from the growth rate, net exports added as much, due to the growth in export volumes and the stagnation of import volumes. The trade balance went into surplus and the current account deficit declined thanks to the weaker rand and the relative absence of strike action.

Another development this year, essential to lessening the tax burden on the productive part of South Africa and so increasing potential growth, is the further decline in public sector employment in Q1 noted by the Reserve Bank. Lower tax rates and less spending on employment benefits for a bloated public sector and also lower interest rates, will help stimulate a recovery in the all-important household spending that is essential for faster, sustained growth over the longer run.

graphA combination of export growth and a stronger trade balance, combined with a smaller budget deficit accompanying fewer expensive public officials, of the kind revealed in Q2 2015, is some of the right stuff necessary to recalibrate the SA economy in the collective mind of the global capital market from a fragile to a resilient economy.

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TAKING STOCK OF GDP

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